Tomorrow night the two best heavyweights on the planet go head to head, 14 months after their first encounter. The first fight was a thriller, with Fury dominating the majority of the fight with his jab and superior movement, but he was still unable to stay away from Wilder long enough, getting dropped in the 9th and 12th rounds. The fight was ruled a draw, somewhat controversially as many people, including myself, thought Fury had done more than enough to win. But how does the second fight play out? More of the same or will it be completely different?
Deontay Wilder is the reigning and defending WBC heavyweight champion, and is arguably the hardest puncher in heavyweight history. In 2019, Wilder scored two devastating knockouts, the first coming against Dominic Breazeale in the 1st round, and the second coming against Luis Ortiz in the 7th. Wilder has made 10 successful defences of his world title since beating Bermane Stiverne for it in 2015. To give some context, that puts him one ahead all time greats like Joe Frazier, Mike Tyson and Lennox Lewis, and draws him level with the great Muhammad Ali. There have often been questions raised over the level of competition that Wilder has defended against, but he’s proved time and time again that he can battle through hardship to still win.
Tyson Fury is the current lineal heavyweight champion, and is easily the best technical heavyweight boxer around today. In 2019 he made two relatively underwhelming defences of his lineal title, squaring off against Tom Schwarz and Otto Wallin. Fury disposed of Schwarz inside two rounds, looking better than he was against Wilder, and then beat Wallin by unanimous decision, having to fight through a horrible cut above his right eye. Fury won his lineal title by absolutely bewildering Wladimir Klitschko in 2015 with his bizarre and unconventional movement and punches. He also won 3 major world titles but had them stripped due to inactivity after he very publicly fell off the wagon.
To get into the debate for who wins, I’ve got to be honest I’ve been thinking about it since the rematch was announced, and I’m still not 100% sure who I think will win. Fury put on a masterclass against Wilder the first time round but I personally think that a rematch benefits Wilder far more than Fury. Fury is wild and unpredictable but by studying what he did the first time round, Wilder can start to gain a better understanding of what he needs to do in the rematch.
Fury will have the added benefit of being far better prepared physically for this fight, bearing in mind that he took the first fight just 6 months after his first fight back in 2 and a half years. Fury obviously did incredibly well to get into the shape that he did for that fight, but he’ll no doubt be at peak physicality tomorrow evening. He is set to weight in at around 270 pounds, or 123 KG, which is roughly 14 pounds and 9 KG heavier than the first fight with Wilder, meaning he should pack some more power behind his punches. His switch in trainer suggests that too, as he split with Ben Davidson and signed with Sugar Hill Steward, son of the great Emmanuel Steward, with the hope of learning one punch knockout power. Fury has said throughout the build up that this time he will knock Wilder out, many times he’s said inside two rounds, but I honestly doubt it. He says that he aims to come forward and get in Wilder’s face, which is an interesting strategy, but I think that would only play into Wilder’s hands. Fury has made it a dog fight in the past, most notably against Wallin and Steve Cunningham, but to compare these two fighters to Deontay Wilder is sheer madness. If Fury comes into range of that right hand too often, he will get knocked out.
I instead think that Fury needs to be even more unpredictable than he was in the first fight. It’s been noted by many analysts that Fury always rolled away from Wilder’s punches to the right in the first fight, which will probably be something that Wilder’s team will have noticed too. He instead needs to mix it up and keep Wilder on his toes. He also needs to sit on his punches a lot more, and punish Wilder when he misses any of his wild swinging punches. He certainly hurt Wilder once or twice in the first fight, but he needs to do that more often this time round, and make Wilder not want to come looking for him.
What does Wilder need to do? I think the main thing is to throw more punches to the body. Fury’s head is going to be moving wildly, but his body will be moving significantly less. If he can land some solid jabs to the chest and unleash some vicious power shots to the body then he will slow Fury down massively and will set himself up with openings later in the fight. I think that is really key for Wilder. He can’t be patient and wait for the openings like he did against Ortiz, because Fury has incredible cardio and will easily go 12 rounds if Wilder lets him. If he invests to the body early, then he’ll be able to be patient later in the fight as Fury begins to slow and tire.
I can see Fury coming forward at periods in the fight, putting pressure on Wilder, and it would be a smart tactic to employ if he can counter with a big power shot, but I don’t think it’ll be wise for him to do it right the way through the fight, as he will probably get knocked out. This is such a difficult fight to make a prediction on. Going into the first fight, I was 100% confident that Fury would win on points, but this second encounter is a genuine 50/50 fight. Right now however, I’m leaning towards Wilder, as I think it’ll benefit him so much to watch back the fight footage and work out how to beat him. Therefore, my official prediction is Wilder to win by knockout in the 10th round.
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