Since I started following the NBA, I noticed that the level of statistics and analytics are far more rich and detailed than it is in European teams sports like football and rugby. As someone who loves looking through stats, this was very exciting for me when I made this discovery. Since I began following the sport, it’s also been very difficult to ignore the sheer amount of discussion about who the greatest player in NBA history is. The most common names brought up in this discussion are Michael Jordan and LeBron James but people still bring up greats like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain and Magic Johnson. I decided to try and use a formula, using the stats available, to try and see if stats alone were capable of calculating who the greatest NBA player of all time is. It’s worth noting that I personally don’t believe that stats are the only things to look at, a player has to pass the ‘eye test’ as well, but this is purely something that I thought would be interesting to look at. Basketball is a good sport to look at in this regard because all positions on the court can be measured on the same stats: point, rebounds, assists. Obviously positions such as centres are more likely to get more rebounds and point guards are more likely to get more assists, but I find that my formula balances itself out in the end.
The stats that I decided I would use are a combination of the players achievements and their per game stats. The achievements I looked at were: MVP’s, Championships, Finals MVP’s, All-NBA 1st Team selections, All-Star Appearances, Conference Titles, Playoff Appearances and number of times they finished as a stats leader in a season. The per game stats that were included are points, rebounds, assists, field goal percentage, player efficiency rating and win shares. I was unable to look at stats like steals and blocks because they weren’t recorded as statistics in the early years of the league, which would give more modern players an unfair mathematical advantage. The same goes for box +/-, which means that those stat lines won’t be included in this formula. Not all stats/achievements are equal however, which means that some achievements were given a higher weighting in this formula. Per game stats are added in just as they are presented, with no increased value placed on any specific stat, but the achievements were ranked from most important to least important. That rankings goes as follows:
- MVP’s
- Championships and Finals MVP’s
- All-NBA 1st Team Selections and Stats Leaders
- All-Star Appearances and Conference Titles
- Playoff Appearnces
However, on top of that, I decided that all of these achievements should be analysed proportionately. Kevin Garnett has more all-star appearences than Michael Jordan, but does that means that Garnett is better than Jordan? Of course not. Garnett played 21 seasons in the NBA, whereas Jordan played 15. Therefore, proportionately, Garnett played in 71.4% of possible All-Star games, and Jordan played in 86.7%. This means that the final formula used is as follows:
Total score = (MVP % x 5) + (Championship % x 4) + (Final’s MVP % x 4) + (All-NBA 1st-Team % x 3) + (Stats Leader % x 3) + (All-Star Appearance % x 2) + (Conference Title % x 2) + Playoff Appearance % + Points Per Game + Rebounds Per game + Assists Per Game + Field Goal % + Player Efficiency Rating + Win Shares.
The way I would decide if this was successful was to compare the results of this test to several lists of the top ten greatest NBA players of all time. I worked out the average top-10 rankings from eight different lists which I will link at the bottom of this article. The average top ten list is as follows:
- Michael Jordan
- LeBron James
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
- Bill Russell
- Magic Johnson
- Wilt Chamberlain
- Shaquille O’Neal
- Larry Bird
- Tim Duncan
- Kobe Bryant
I compiled the stats of more than 31 NBA players, and am using the top 10 from that list to compare to the above list. So, without further ado, here is my top 10 list:
10. Tim Duncan (813.2 Points)
MVP’s: 2 (2003 & 2003)
Championships: 5 (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007 & 2014)
Finals MVP’s: 3 (1999, 2003 & 2005)
All-NBA 1st Team: 10 (1998-2005, 2007 & 2013)
All-Star Appearances: 15 (1998, 2000-2011, 2013 & 2015)
Conference Titles: 6 (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2013 & 2014)
Playoff Appearances: 18 (1998-1999, 2001-2016)
Stats Leader: 0
Points Per Game: 19
Rebounds Per Game: 10.8
Assists Per Game: 3
Field Goal %: 50.6
Player Efficiency Rating: 24.2
Win Shares: 10.9
9. Kevin Durant (817.1 Points)
MVP’s: 1 (2014)
Championships: 2 (2017 & 2018)
Finals MVP’s: 2 (2017 & 2018)
All-NBA 1st Team: 6 (2010-2014, 2018)
All-Star Appearances: 11 (2010-2019, 2021)
Conference Titles: 4 (2012, 2017-2019)
Playoff Appearances: 9 (2010-2014, 2016-2019)
Stats Leader: 4 (2010-2012, 2014)
Points Per Game: 27.1
Rebounds Per Game: 7.1
Assists Per Game: 4.1
Field Goal %: 49.3
Player Efficiency Rating: 25.2
Win Shares: 12
8. Jerry West (907.1 Points)
MVP’s: 0
Championships: 1 (1972)
Finals MVP’s: 1 (1969)
All-NBA 1st Team: 10 (1962-1967, 1970-1973)
All-Star Appearances: 14 (1961-1974)
Conference Titles: 9 (1962, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1968-1970, 1972, 1973)
Playoff Appearances: 13 (1961-1970, 1972-1974)
Stats Leader: 2 (1970 & 1972)
Points Per Game: 27
Rebounds Per Game: 5.8
Assists Per Game: 6.7
Field Goal %: 47.4
Player Efficiency Rating: 22.9
Win Shares: 11.6
7. Larry Bird (955.7 Points)
MVP’s: 3 (1984-1986)
Championships: 3 (1981, 1984 & 1986)
Finals MVP’s: 2 (1984 & 1986)
All-NBA 1st Team: 9 (1980-1988)
All-Star Appearances: 12 (1980-1988, 1990-1992)
Conference Titles: 5 (1981, 1984-1987)
Playoff Appearances: 12 (1980-1988, 1990-1992)
Stats Leader: 0
Points Per Game: 24.3
Rebounds Per Game: 10
Assists Per Game: 6.3
Field Goal %: 49.6
Player Efficiency Rating: 23.5
Win Shares: 11.2
6. LeBron James (1050.4 Points)
MVP’s: 4 (2009, 2010, 2012, 2013)
Championships: 4 (2012, 2013, 2016, 2020)
Finals MVP’s: 4 (2012, 2013, 2016, 2020)
All-NBA 1st Team: 13 (2006, 2008-2018, 2020)
All-Star Appearances: 17 (2005-2021)
Conference Titles: 10 (2007, 2011-2018, 2020)
Playoff Appearances: 14 (2006-2018, 2020)
Stats Leader: 2 (2008, 2020)
Points Per Game: 27
Rebounds Per Game: 7.4
Assists Per Game: 7.4
Field Goal %: 50.4
Player Efficiency Rating: 27.4
Win Shares: 14.1
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1078.6 Points)
MVP’s: 6 (1971, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1980)
Championships: 6 (1971, 1980, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1988)
Finals MVP’s: 2 (1971, 1985)
All-NBA 1st Team: 10 (1971-1974, 1976, 1977, 1980, 1981, 1984, 1986)
All-Star Appearances: 19 (1970-1977, 1979-1989)
Conference Titles: 10 (1971, 1974, 1980, 1982-1985, 1987-1989)
Playoff Appearances: 18 (1970-1974, 1977-1989)
Stats Leader: 7 (1971, 1972, 1975, 1976 x2, 1979, 1980)
Points Per Game: 24.6
Rebounds Per Game: 11.2
Assists Per Game: 3.6
Field Goal %: 55.9
Player Efficiency Rating: 24.6
Win Shares: 13.7
4. Wilt Chamberlain (1227.3 Points)
MVP’s: 4 (1960, 1966-1968)
Championships: 2 (1967, 1972)
Finals MVP’s: 1 (1972)
All-NBA 1st Team: 7 (1960-1962, 1964, 1966-1968)
All-Star Appearances: 13 (1960-1969, 1971-1973)
Conference Titles: 6 (1964, 1967, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1973)
Playoff Appearances: 13 (1960-1962, 1964-1973)
Stats Leader: 19 (1960-1963 x2, 1964, 1965, 1966 x2 1967, 1968 x2, 1969, 1971-1973)
Points Per Game: 30.1
Rebounds Per Game: 22.9
Assists Per Game: 4.4
Field Goal %: 54
Player Efficiency Rating: 26.1
Win Shares: 16.5
3. Magic Johnson (1256.8 Points)
MVP’s: 3 (1987, 1989, 1990)
Championships: 5 (1980, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1988)
Finals MVP’s: 3 (1980, 1982, 1987)
All-NBA 1st Team: 9 (1983-1991)
All-Star Appearances: 12 (1980, 1982-1992)
Conference Titles: 9 (1980, 1982-1985, 1987-1989, 1991)
Playoff Appearances: 13 (1980-1991, 1996)
Stats Leader: 6 (1981-1984, 1986, 1987)
Points Per Game: 19.5
Rebounds Per Game: 7.2
Assists Per Game: 11.2
Field Goal %: 52
Player Efficiency Rating: 24.1
Win Shares: 12
2. Bill Russell (1278.9 Points)
MVP’s: 5 (1958, 1961-1963, 1965)
Championships: 11 (1957, 1959-1966, 1968, 1969)
Finals MVP’s: 0
All-NBA 1st Team: 3 (1959, 1962, 1965)
All-Star Appearances: 12 (1958-1969)
Conference Titles: 12 (1957-1966, 1968, 1969)
Playoff Appearances: 13 (1957-1969)
Stats Leader: 4 (1958, 1959, 1964, 1965)
Points Per Game: 15.1
Rebounds Per Game: 22.5
Assists Per Game: 4.3
Field Goal %: 44
Player Efficiency Rating: 18.9
Win Shares: 12.6
- Michael Jordan (1433.5 Points)
MVP’s: 5 (1988, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1998)
Championships: 6 (1991-1993, 1996-1998)
Finals MVP’s: 6 (1991-1993, 1996-1998)
All-NBA 1st Team: 10 (1987-1993, 1996-1998)
All-Star Appearances: 14 (1985-1993, 1996-1998, 2002, 2003)
Conference Titles: 6 (1991-1993, 1996-1998)
Playoff Appearances: 13 (1985-1993, 1995-1998)
Stats Leader: 13 (1987, 1988 x2, 1989, 1990 x2, 1991, 1992, 1993 x2, 1996-1998)
Points Per Game: 30.1
Rebounds Per Game: 6.2
Assists Per Game: 5.3
Field Goal %: 49.7
Player Efficiency Rating: 27.9
Win Shares: 14.3
For reference, this is numbers 11 to 20 in the list:
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Shaquille O’Neal
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Julius Erving
15. Steph Curry
16. Hakeem Olajuwon
17. James Harden
18. Karl Malone
19. David Robinson
20. Moses Malone
Whilst there are a couple of poor rankings on this list, I actually feel like it mostly turned out pretty good. Every player that was on that average top 10 still makes the top 12, and there aren’t any placements that I think are horrendous. However, in my opinion, LeBron James should be top 5, Kareem should be above Wilt Chamberlain, Kevin Durant and Jerry West shouldn’t be in the top 10, and I think Bill Russell is slightly too high. It’s interesting that KD made the top 10 because he was the only player to make it that wasn’t featured in a single one of the top 10’s down below, whereas Jerry West made one. I think that by the time Durant retires he will be considered one of the greatest of all time, and will potentially crack a few top 10 lists. Obviously LeBron is still active, so if he wins another Championship with the Lakers in the next few years then he may move above Kareem, but for now, I’m pretty happy with how it turned out. It is far from a perfect formula, but it’s not half bad.
https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/story/_/id/29105801/ranking-top-74-nba-players-all-nos-10-1
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1795233-10-greatest-nba-players-of-all-time
https://howtheyplay.com/team-sports/Top-10-NBA-Players-Ever
https://www.britannica.com/list/the-10-greatest-basketball-players-of-all-time
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/gallery/ranking-the-25-greatest-players-in-nba-history-100716
https://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/slam_500_greatest.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/simmons_pyramid.html
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